Overview
Photo: Dave Harp/Chesapeake Bay Journal
Recognizing the need to better predict how changing environmental conditions are likely to affect living resources like oysters, crabs, and striped bass, the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) has formed a research team with diverse expertise to combine Chesapeake Bay Program data with metabolic models (vital signs, if you will) of key Chesapeake species. Our goal is to develop a predictive capacity for these iconic animals under different management and climate scenarios.
This project uses the resources of the Chesapeake Global Collaboratory to achieve this goal. It 1) leverages big data and modeling in support of actionable scientific research that 2) was developed in collaboration with external partners 3) in response to an expressed existing need in the management of Chesapeake Bay restoration efforts.
Significance
In the Chesapeake Bay, changes have already resulted in increasing seasonal water temperatures, rising sea levels, an increase in bottom water hypoxia, and a reduction in many species of shellfish and finfish. Understanding the effects of these changes on the availability and quality of habitat for living resources in Chesapeake Bay is a major unknown.
We propose to leverage pre-existing, water quality predictions from the Chesapeake Bay Program’s CH3D-ICM hydrodynamic-water quality model and published metabolic models for a range of species to model physiological habitat suitability for a range of organisms (Eastern oysters, blue crabs, white perch, blue catfish) under current management scenarios.
Benefits
This project supports a long-term vision of better forecasting of habitat conditions under future climate and management scenarios. Our approach is structurally simple in that it relies on pre-existing Chesapeake Bay water quality model output and pre-existing metabolic modeling results.
Further, the water quality model output that we would use has been generated specifically because those scenarios are of interest to managers making on-the-ground decisions regarding Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load regulations.
Progress
The data comparison model is currently in a working draft version. The Chesapeake Metaboscape v0.1.0 contains data on the feeding rate, metabolic rate, temperature and salinity of the Chesapeake Bay on various dates.
Chesapeake Metaboscape Demo DRAFT
Chesapeake Metaboscape Demo DRAFT