Forest Simulation Modeling in Central Appalachia

Appalachian forests are subject to diverse and interacting threats, including climatic stress, such as flood, drought, and heatwaves, and disturbance, such as logging, mining, wildfire, and insect and pathogen assault. Current political interest in developing woody biomass energy resources to meet greenhouse gas targets portends additional near-term harvesting pressure. In this complicated context, effectively conserving and managing forests requires a method of testing the effects of candidate management activities given various climate and disturbance scenarios. As trees are long-lived, future conditions are imperfectly understood, and ecological interactions are complex, this requires a well calibrated simulation model.

This project will set up the iLand forest landscape and disturbance simulation model for the central Appalachian region of the Eastern United States. Forest simulation models are a powerful conservation and management tool, offering one of our clearest windows into an uncertain future. They have been extensively and successfully applied to understand and predict short- and long-term effects of disturbance, climate, and management on forest resilience, carbon sequestration potential, and forest recovery trajectories, among other responses.